Vacancies continue to decline while inactivity marginally falls
In the period between July and September 2024, wage growth across the economy remained strong, employment and unemployment levels both increased, while vacancies and inactivity both fell. The data continues to paint a mixed picture of the labour market, with conditions cooling but limited labour pool hindering business’s ability to grow.
The UK employment rate (for people aged 16 to 64 years) was estimated at 74.8% in July and September 2024, up on the latest quarter but largely unchanged on the year. The UK unemployment rate (for people aged 16 years and over) was estimated at 4.3% in July and September 2024, above estimates of a year ago (+0.2%) and on the quarter (+0.1%).
The UK economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 21.8% between July and September 2024, slightly down on the quarter and the year.
In July to September 2024, the estimated number of vacancies in the UK decreased by 35,000 on the quarter to 831,000. Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 28th consecutive period and are currently 14,000 above pre-pandemic levels. Based on current trends, vacancies should reach pre-pandemic levels (817,000) next month.
Payrolled employees in the UK decreased by 9,000 (0.0%) between August and September 2024 but rose by 136,000 (+0.4%) between September 2023 and September 2024. The early estimate of payrolled employees for October 2024 decreased by 5,000 (0.0%) on the month but increased by 95,000 (+0.3%) on the year, to 30.4 million. The October 2024 estimate should be treated as a provisional estimate and is likely to be revised when more data is received next month.
Annual growth in employees' average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) in Great Britain was 4.8% in July to September 2024, and annual growth in total earnings (including bonuses) was 4.3%. Annual growth in real terms (adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH)) for regular pay was 1.9% in July to September 2024, and for total pay, 1.4%.
The decision to raise National Insurance Contributions (NICs) at the Autumn Budget means it is more important than ever that government partners with businesses to address investment barriers and the top challenge of spiralling employment costs. This includes working through the unintended consequences of the Employment Rights Bill and delivering immediate flexibility of the Apprenticeship Levy to reflect industry’s need for a wider range of accredited and modular non-apprenticeship training.
Download the full labour market update, in partnership with Pertemps, below.
