We look at what new GDP and labour market statistics tell us about the economy.
Recent data suggest the UK economy has been more resilient since the start of 2023 than was widely expected just a few months ago. But with high inflation still eating away at household budgets, and worrying signs that inflation may prove more intractable, activity is expected to remain subdued in the near-term. Nonetheless, it now looks increasingly likely that the UK will avoid a recession this year.
Last week saw the release of GDP figures for March, allowing a preliminary assessment of the strength of activity during the first quarter of the year from official data. Output contracted a little in March, reflecting a broad-based decline in the services sector. Industrial action in the health, education, civil service, and transport sectors contributed to this, as did unseasonably wet weather, which dampened spending in some consumer-facing sectors. However, the economy eked out growth of 0.1% (q/q) in the first quarter as a whole, supported by increases in con
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