Insights from Stuart Brocklehurst, Deputy Vice-Chancellor at one of the world’s leading authorities in climate research, the University of Exeter
Working on climate change requires a particular form of mental juggling, holding at once in your mind both the stark and terrifying reality of our perilous situation alongside optimism and belief that positive change is within our control.
In the face of that reality, it’s increasingly hard to remain positive. Models offer only tightly-constrained predictions, not exact pictures of the future. The gross level of global warming, averaged over several years, has been captured well by models, but we’re now seeing shorter-term observations outpace those predictions. Whilst we’re still in the foothills of global warming’s impacts, sharp increases in flooding and forest fires, shrinking polar sea ice and glaciers, and increases in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, give us a foretaste of what lies ahead.
We risk these and other affects accelerating exponentially as a series of ‘tipping points’ in natural systems trigger: as the tundra, which sequesters seven times the carbon currently in the atmosphere, thaws, releasing its methane stores, and as our carbon sinks – those elements of the natural world that absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere – become less able to balance out some of our emissions.
We’re already seeing the practical consequences of this both in lives lost and in accelerated economic costs. If we pass key ‘tipping points’ we will face rapid, disruptive change causing lost markets and stranded assets, vast migration away from the worst affected areas, challenges to food security, and intense human suffering.
So where in all this, can we find optimism?
Well, although our action to date has been nowhere near sufficient to keep warming within the 1.5C limit (we are already at around 1.3C), after decades of rapid growth in emissions, we’re now more or less stable – i.e. emissions are no longer accelerating annually. That’s nowhere near sufficient, emissions need to reduce, and sharply – but there is hope to be found in that difference we’ve already made through actions we’ve taken.
Halting the growth in global emissions has been achieved without sacrificing economic growth, as new clean technologies replace their inefficient carbon-intensive alternatives: we don’t have to choose between economic and environmental progress.
Beyond this, the action we must take to cut emissions is already understood in significant detail, especially to reach the first stage of halving emissions by 2030. At the start of the Covid pandemic, we were locked-down in our homes, waiting for scientists to discover a vaccine; but in contrast, science has already given us the prescription to counter climate change. It will require business innovation to deliver that pill in a sufficiently sweet way, but we’re not required to wait for fresh scientific discovery.
How business can seize the opportunity of positive tipping points
When it comes to climate solutions, tipping points switch sides to become our allies in the fight. As transitional technologies scale, attracting R&D investment and moving to manufacture in high volume, their efficiency increases and production costs fall. Since Jimmy Carter put solar panels on the roof of the White House in 1979, their price per kW has dropped 99.9% - they’re now so cheap that some buildings are being clad in them; even on a north facing wall, the power generated is becoming worthwhile.
Better still, the relationships between the industries delivering the transition to net zero are mutually reinforcing, enabling a cascade of positive tipping points. Moving to entirely renewable energy requires storage for times when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow. The rapid growth in electric vehicles has slashed the cost of battery storage, making 100% renewable power more economically viable; and, when eventually old car batteries drop in capacity to a degree they can no longer do service on the road, they will have second lives on the grid, reused before they get recycled.
Business can act now to help fight the worst impacts of climate change
We stand at a critical point. Some extent of climate change is already baked in, along with the adaptation costs and consequences that brings. But we can still make the choice to step back from the most catastrophic of options for our future.
There is huge opportunity for business. Those who ride the wave of positive tipping points may mirror exponential growth in the uptake of tomorrow’s technologies in their own results. But there’s also something beyond a calculation of return here.
Businesses exist to meet the needs of humanity, to serve and provide for us in ways which enrich our lives. Climate change is the greatest challenge humanity faces, probably the greatest we’ve ever faced. Our generation has the responsibility – and perhaps the privilege – to respond. Few through history get the chance for heroism; the chance to deliver an epic endeavour is before us now.
About the author
Stuart Brocklehurst is a Deputy Vice-Chancellor and Director of Green Futures at the University of Exeter, which he joined following a career in banking and technology.
Learn more at the CBI’s Annual Conference
Want to hear more on how the UK can seize the prizes of green growth? Hear from our author Stuart Brocklehurst, alongside other leaders in business and politics, at the CBI’s 2024 Annual Conference. We are proud to partner with the University of Exeter on our panel: ‘Walk the walk: honouring our green commitments’. Find out more and book your ticket.
