UK economic forecast: June 2023

UK outlook: glass half full?

We have upgraded our forecast for economic growth so that we no longer expect the economy to fall into a mild recession this year, instead predicting growth of 0.4% over 2023. The near-term outlook is supported by falling inflation – in part driven by lower wholesale energy prices – giving some breathing space to households, and a more favourable global outlook. However, inflation is not expected to fall back as swiftly as expected back in December. Meanwh