Retail sales fall for the seventh month in a row, with a faster decline expected in May - CBI Distributive Trades Survey

Retailers reported that sales volumes fell at a slower rate in the year to April, following a sharp drop in March, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey. This marked the seventh month in a row of declining annual retail sales, and firms expect sales to contract at a faster pace in the year to May.

Key findings included:

• Retail sales volumes fell at a modest rate in the year to April, following a sharp decline in March (weighted balance of -8% from -41% in March). However, retailers expect sales to fall at a quicker pace next month (-33%).

• Sales for the time of year were judged to be "poor" in April, but to a slightly lesser extent than in March (-31% from -36% in March). Retailers expect May's sales to fall short of seasonal norms to a greater degree (-38%).

• Online retail sales volumes were broadly flat in the year to April (-1% from -27% in March) and are expected to remain unchanged next month (+2%).

• Wholesale annual sales volumes declined in April at one of the quickest rates since September 2020 (-33% from -29% in March). Wholesalers expect sales to fall at a slightly slower rate in May (-26%).

• Total distribution sales volumes (including retail, wholesale, and motor trades) contracted at a firm, albeit slightly slower, pace in the year to April (-26% from -32% in March). Sales are expected to fall at a steady rate in May (-29%).

Martin Sartorius, Principal Economist, CBI, said:

"Annual retail sales volumes fell more slowly in April, but firms remain pessimistic about the outlook due to the impact of Autumn Budget measures, persistently weak consumer sentiment, and global economic uncertainty. These themes were echoed in the wholesale sector, which reported one of the sharpest sales declines in the past four years.

"With no sales recovery on the horizon, firms across the distribution sector want to see the government use every lever available to boost business and household confidence during these challenging times. Making it easier to invest in skills by reforming the Apprenticeship Levy, using the forthcoming Spending Review to boost tech adoption, and continuing to prioritise free and fair trade are key measures that would help kickstart economic growth."

In addition, data from the survey showed:

• Retail orders placed upon suppliers declined at a slower pace in the year to April (-24% from -38% in March). Retailers expect to cut back on orders at a slightly quicker rate next month (-29%).

• Retail stock volumes in relation to expected demand remained firm in April (+21% from +20% in March; long-run average +17%) but are set to soften in May (+11%).

• Motor trade sales volumes contracted at an accelerated pace in the year to April (-50% from -21% in March). The sales decline is anticipated to decelerate in May (-34%).