Retail sales recover from last month's decline - CBI monthly Distributive Trades Survey

Retail sales volumes grew at a solid pace in the year to October, following last month’s decline, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey. Next month, retailers expect sales volumes to fall again, but at a slow pace.

• Retail sales volumes grew at a firm rate in the year to October (+18%), recovering from last month’s decline (-20%). Retailers expect sales volumes to fall at a modest pace next month (-9%).
• Retail sales were seen as good for the time of year in October (+20%), following slightly disappointing seasonal volumes last month (-7%). Retailers expect that sales will be broadly in line with seasonal norms next month (+2%).
• Orders placed upon suppliers were broadly unchanged in the year to October (-1% from -16% in September). Orders are expected to decline at a firm pace next month (-16%).
• Retailers viewed stocks in October as “too high” relative to expected sales to the same extent as last month (+8% from +8% in September). Stock positions are expected to ease in November to be broadly “adequate” (+3%).
• Wholesale sales volumes were broadly flat in the year to October (+3% from -21% in September) and are expected to remain unchanged next month (+2%).

Martin Sartorius, CBI Principal Economist, said:

“Retail sales volumes recovered to grow at a firm pace this month, but retailers continue to face a challenging operating environment due to rising costs, higher interest rates, and labour shortages.

“The Government must continue in its efforts to re-establish macroeconomic stability and restore business confidence. Delivering comprehensive reform on business rates and the Apprenticeship Levy would be helpful first steps to encourage business investment through these difficult times.”