Tale of two service sectors - CBI

Business volumes grew at the fastest rate since August 2015 among business and professional services companies, while volumes fell in the three months to May for consumer services. That’s according to the latest quarterly CBI Service Sector Survey.

Business and professional services companies – which include accountancy, legal and marketing firms –expect to see volumes grow at a similarly robust pace over the next quarter. At the same time, firms’ optimism about the business situation has improved at its fastest pace for a year.

Meanwhile, after solid growth in the previous quarter, volumes fell in the three months to May in the consumer services sector – which includes hotels, bars, restaurants, travel and leisure firms. Optimism in the sub-sector deteriorated over the last quarter, but consumer services companies expect volumes growth to return next quarter.

Cost growth picked up again in the consumer services sector, matching the strong rates seen in Q2 and Q3 2017, while cost growth in business and professional services growth edged higher. Stronger cost pressures fed through into higher price inflation in both sub-sectors.

Profitability strengthened in business and professional services, at its fastest rate since August 2015, but profits in consumer services fell amidst falling volumes and surging costs. Employment continued to grow in business and professional services, while growth in headcount slowed somewhat in the consumer services sector to around the long-run average. Both sectors spent more on training and re-training over the past three months, with both expecting spending to continue to grow next quarter.

Neither business and professional services nor consumer services expect to expand their businesses over the year ahead. Meanwhile, investment intentions for the year ahead remain strong in IT in both sub-sectors. Replacement is the dominant driver of investment plans in consumer services, while business and professional companies cite both replacement and increasing efficiency as drivers of investment.

Rain Newton-Smith, CBI Chief Economist, said:

“It’s a tale of two sectors in services this quarter as business and professional services pick up a head of steam, but the fortunes of consumer services, like hotels and restaurants, continue to be squeezed.

“For all services, rising costs are exerting pressure on margins, but in business and professional services, sales volumes are helping profitability to kick on.

“With inflation coming down and wage growth creeping up the worst of the squeeze on household incomes appears to be over. However, conditions for consumer-facing firms are likely to remain challenging for a while yet, not least in light of the high burden of business rates on our high streets.”

Key findings

Business and professional services:

• Optimism regarding the general business situation improved at the fastest pace in over a year (+14% this quarter compared with +14% in May 2017)
• Growth in business volumes accelerated (+25%), with volumes growing at the fastest pace since August 2015 (+33%). Growth is expected to remain robust in the three months ahead (+26%)
• Average selling prices picked up (+10%), after broadly unchanged prices in the three months to February (+3%). Price growth is expected to pick up further in the coming quarter (+14%)
• Profit growth strengthened (+18%) and growth is expected to edge higher next quarter (+23%)
• Numbers employed (+13%) grew at a similar steady pace to the three months to February (+14%), and are expected to grow at a slightly faster rate next quarter (+20%)
• Growth in total costs per person picked up (+38% from +33% in February), and a similar story is expected over the next three months (+42%)
• Firms expect to keep spending unchanged on land and buildings (+1%) while they expect to modestly reduce spending on vehicles, plant and machinery (-4%). Firms expect to spend more on IT (+27% from +20%), the strongest expectations in a year
• However, firms remain negative about the outlook for business expansion in the year ahead (-9%).

Consumer services:

• Optimism about the general business situation deteriorated in the three months to May (-11%)
• Business volumes fell (-12%), after solid growth in the previous quarter (+32%), but volumes growth is expected to recover in the three months to August (+8%)
• Growth in total costs per person surged (+61%) following elevated cost growth in the three months to February (+43%). Costs per person are expected to ease but remain historically elevated in the three months to August (+51%)
• Profitability fell in the three months to May (-16%) and is expected to fall – but at a slower pace - next quarter (-5%)
• Average selling price growth accelerated (+26%) but it is anticipated that the pace of growth will slow next quarter (+15%)
• Employment growth slowed (+10% compared with +34% last quarter) but headcount is expected to be flat next quarter (-2%)
• Investment intentions were positive for all categories: IT (+28%), vehicles, plant and machinery (+5%) and land and buildings (+4%)
• However, consumer services are more pessimistic about the outlook for business expansion in the year ahead (-10% from +14%).

Notes to Editors:

The Service Sector Survey was conducted between 27^th April and 11th May 2018. 143 Business and Professional Service firms and 62 Consumer Service firms replied.

A ‘balance’ is the difference between the weighted percentage of firms answering that output is “up” and the percentage answering “down” (for example, if 30% of firms say that output is up, 60% that it is unchanged, and 10% that it is down, the balance statistic is +20%).